Monday, January 28, 2008

Activist Investors and what the Harvard Business Review thinks

Guys, not confident with which stock to pick for our next meeting? How about becoming an activist investor: buy a ton of shares in a distressed stock until you have enough voice to call an EGM, and maybe oust the management?

Ok, so realistically speaking, you probably aren't going to be able to afford to do that, let alone get anything done in time for next Sunday, but that doesn't keep this kind of thing from being commonplace.

This article is an interesting look into a meddling hedge fund who is trying to fix things at the New York Times by replacing the management:

Hedge Fund Seeks to Sway New York Times


How does this happen? Well when Dave told you that purchasing stocks means you own a little part of the company, he wasn't kidding. And with ownership comes the power to make decisions and change things. Oftentimes, a CEO or other members of the executive suite are tossed out by angry shareholders for doing a shitty job. Other times, it is by people/organizations which had no previous ownership, but merely bought into a company to turn it around with new management, and sell their stake once the value went up again.

Other times, they step in to simply sell off a lot of the assets, like cash, accounts receivable, or inventory, all of which can be sold very quickly. Sometimes, even less liquid assets like PPE [plant property and equipment] are considered. These assets are sold when they are worth more collectively than the company's market cap.

Carl Ichan is a famous example of one of these guys, oftemtimes called corporate raiders.

Interestingly enough, a recent issuing of the Harvard Buisness Review included an article written by Robin Greenwood and Michael Schor, entitled "When (Not) to Listen to Activist Investors," which offered a different opinion.

According to the article: "on average, a company that alters strategy in response to activist shareholders won't see stock gains that outperform the market - that is, unless the company is taken over." This is not the case for Harbinger capital, which just wants to scrap some of the NYT's assets.

The article goes on to say: "Our findings shouldn't be surprising. Activists are investors, not managers, and their real talent lies in identifying undervalued assets, not in determining the right steps to fix them."

This ties in well with all the recent hubbub about Soverign Wealth Funds as well - especially in terms of middle east ones, many of whom are interested in completely owning some companies, instead of purchasing large stakes in them. Because the talent out there is not yet as solid as it is in the states, and because these SWFs are buying up so much, will we have to worry about poorly managed companies in the near future?

At least for the time being, this will probably not be the case for Harbinger and the NYT, as is reported in the article: "Harbinger's nominees have 'deep expertise' in capital allocation, Internet media and brand strategy."

5 comments:

  1. Hey, I wasn't sure where to post this so it seems everyone is buying financial stocks, aka big banks, because there is an anticipation that the Fed will cut up to .5 sometime this week after the Jan. 29-30 meeting. So the big buy is financial stocks because of the possibility for big gain in the future?

    Any clarification would be great.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Take this from a person who lost 25% on the financials. I would be hesitant to buy the financials as a buy/hold strategy. Yes, the banks and financials will do well this week, but I personally don't think the subprime problems are over for another few months.

    ReplyDelete
  3. If the Fed cuts 50 or more, the banks will be in bull mode for the short term. I agree with Keenan that the bank troubles aren't near done. However, if you're itching to get in and think they're near the bottom put in 20-30% of the total you want to put in now, put a third in in 3 months and the rest in in like 6-9 months. If you did that then didn't look at it for 3 years, it will probably be doubled given how low some of the higher quality banks are. If I were doing this I'd be looking at Wachovia (7% yield), Wells Fargo or Goldman (kind of a different character).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bear in mind, while a 50 point cut would benefit stocks to some degree, it's alright largely priced in. And furthermore, if the Fed doesn't cut 50 - which is certainly possible - the downside risk is far greater than the upside risk.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Why are bank stocks going up the last few day? It's because of the fed rate cuts. So why all of a sudden to people think they'll make money? It has to do with their "net interest margin." This is the difference between the rates we pay a bank for a loan and the rate the bank pays us in our checking/savings account. The federal reserve controls the short term rates (so now the banks have to lower their checking/savings acct. interest rate) and this makes the "spread" between the two rates increase so banks will be able to make (or at least not lose as much) more money. I agree with Keenan, there are still tons of problems in the financial system and I would be a seller of this week long rally which will continue if the Fed cuts 50 bp tomorrow. Hope this helps!

    ReplyDelete

As of 02/26/08

Website Hit Counters
stats counter