Thursday, September 10, 2009

Is Employment a "Green Shoot?"


I am still a little torn on the unemployment situation in America and some consumer spending habits. Yes, nearly 10% of Americans are officially unemployed (really it is about 17%), but I feel like the other 90% might be okay. This is my one “green shoot” for future growth as consumers account for about 70% of our gross domestic product. If you still have your job and your dividend paying stocks are still handing out cash, not much has changed for you other than the value of principal in your account is lower. Look at Apple's latest quarter...someone is still buying iPhones hand over fist! I am not sure if Apple is an anomaly or an indicator that the top 90% are better than most think (it also helps that Apple is part of a huge move toward mobile internet).

Unemployment data is a numbers game and the media often distorts it. If unemployment goes from 5% to 10%, we say it has doubled or gone up 100%. At the same time, though, the employment rate goes from 95% to 90% -- only a 5.3% decrease! Everyone knows job losses have slowed, so it is not really news. The big issue is job creation and when will it occur.

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