Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The Charts Can Lie


When people say you need to buy stocks because you do not want to miss the move or because prices are trending higher...WATCH OUT! For a trader, this is heaven, for a long-term, buy-and-hold investor like most Americans, UH OH! The average, everyday investor is the one who buys at the top and gets burned. I am not saying we will test the March lows again (mostly likely that will be the low for years to come), but the potential for upside in stocks is very, very limited given what available information we have. Yes, businesses are poised for ridiculous bottom-line growth given they have been stripped down to almost nothing, but ultimately, the top line drives the bottom line. Top line growth prospects are not on my radar screen given tepid consumer spending. The only sector that has some nice growth prospects is the technology sector, especially the mobile internet companies (some alternative energy companies might be sitting pretty, but they are too speculative/the government has too much influence for my liking right now), but these stocks are already trading at very high multiples.

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