Buy the Pullbacks

To begin with, I believe agriculture, oil and gold are going to substantially outperform the markets for the rest of the year. However, these sectors have had an incredibly smooth ride upward over the last year plus. That ride upward will probably get more bumpy throughout this year... but not just yet. Why? The people who manage money have a reputation to keep.

The vast majority of money managers report results quarterly. The first quarter of 2008 comes to an end on March 31. Now lets think about this, you're a money manager, you've outperformed the S&P by 10+% thus far this year (as many of the stocks and ETFs in these sectors have), are you going to want to show the people whose money you manage that you own these names? Absolutely. Last year Google would get pops around this time each of the first 3 quarters because if managers didn't have it to show shareholders when they disclose holdings they'd look like idiots.

Now let's remember that people who manage money, hedge funds, mutual funds, all face this pressure, to hold the hot stuff. Therefore, the whales (the groups with all the money) aren't going to be selling a whole lot of any of these sectors this month, especially as we get closer to March 31. So what? So selling pressure on these names will be much less than it otherwise would be, allowing the names to go higher or at least preventing the names from correcting downward. Bottom line: I'm a buyer of these sectors on pullbacks like we saw today.

Quick picks in these sectors:
Ag- I ran a comps analysis mid last week, read through the presentations, the one that stands out is Potash... absolutely kicking ass, but pricey, obviously.
Oil- I like some of the oil service companies more than the drillers (I own TDW, the largest oil rig service vessel operator in the world) also attractive at these levels is BP, the intergrated oil company (one who operates in all facets of the game: drilling, refining, transporting, etc) which is actually adding to reserves and sporting a 5+% dividend, full disclosure: I bought some today.
Gold- Lots of people in the press preach owning gold ETFs, such as GLD, rather than the miners. I agree with them. Owning the miners only exposes you to the risk of a mine collapsing or something like that and with many companies, they hedge their gold, so they're not seeing the full benefit of the increase of the price of gold. If you like the miners, Cramer would send you to AUY or AEM. I've done my homework on both of them, I'd go with GLD, the ETF.