Thursday, August 20, 2009

Why I am staying away from stocks…


The monster move in stocks from the March low was people realizing the world was not going to implode (thank you, Ben Bernanke) and equity prices needed to be re-valued accordingly. People are misrepresenting this straight-lined “rally” with a robust, straight-lined recovery. This “growth” everyone is talking about is merely a bounce from unbelievably low levels, and looking forward, the growth prospects are very grim outside of government stimulus. A good analogy is like shattering your leg. The economy/stock market broke its leg in about twenty places and has about ten steel rods in it (relate the rods to new government programs to prop things up) and more surgeries will mostly likely be necessary in the future. You do not go from bed-ridden to playing sports in five months (hopefully technology will be that good someday though). You make the most progress, in terms of healing, in the first few months (because you are coming off such low levels), and stock prices are the first things that heal. Be patient, a true economic recovery will take some time -- maybe a long time. Wait for the fundamentals to improve or the prices to pullback.

As of 02/26/08

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